The purpose of this project is to construct a model to attempt to forecast the interim earnings of Harley Davidson.

1. SYNOPSIS The purpose of this project is to construct a theoretical account to sample on to forecast the lag shekels of Harley Davidson. Harley Davidson, Inc. manufactures subsidy wheels, recreational vehicles, specialize commercial vehicles and parts and accessories. The Companys Motorcycle share manufactures and markets heavyweight touring and customs motorcycles and a broad range of connect results including riding app bel, motorcycle accessories and replacement parts. My purpose is to construct a seat using six familys worth of historical selective information and try to predict the meshwork for the following twelvemonth. I volition usage the interim requital for the years 1989-1994, and divide them into 24 fitting quarters. The model uses a quantative forecasting method called the increasing sequence Series Model. It is based on the assumption that thither argon four factors that have influenced the time serial publication in the past. They are: 1. way 2. Cycle 3. Season 4. unrhythmical These factors will also be influences in the forecast year as well. If I isolate them I will be able to forecast the earnings for 1995. Finally, I will measure the accuracy of my forecast in sanctify to decide if the model is capable of giving accurate forecasts. The actual time serial are expressed in this model as the production of the four components: Yt = T*C*S*I. 3.

RESULTS During the years of 1989 - 1994, Harley Davidson, Inc. chance upon an overall increase in interim earnings. The peak of their earnings occurred in the second quarter of 1994 with a .63; while the strap earnings occurred during the fourth quarter of 1991 w! ith only a .09. 3.1 CMA chart 2 shows the Center Moving Average and Harley Davidsons actual interim earnings. The CMAV is the product of two factors, Cycle and Trend. It represents the values of interim earnings if Trend and... If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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